According to a new market analysis from Grayscale, Bitcoin appears to be following its historical four-year cycle pattern, with current conditions suggesting a trajectory toward new all-time highs in 2026. The firm’s assessment indicates that the 2025 sell-off is more characteristic of a mid-cycle correction and local bottom rather than signaling a premature peak for the current market phase.
Grayscale identifies two primary catalysts that could propel the next major breakout. The first is the potential shift in monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with anticipated interest rate cuts poised to improve liquidity conditions favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. The second, and potentially more structural, catalyst revolves around the progression of comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation in the United States. The passage of clear regulatory frameworks is seen as a critical step for reducing market uncertainty and fostering greater institutional participation.
This analysis reinforces the perspective that Bitcoin’s market behavior continues to be influenced by its halving-driven supply schedule, while increasingly interacting with traditional macroeconomic and regulatory developments. The convergence of these cyclical and fundamental factors, Grayscale suggests, sets the stage for the next significant bullish phase in the latter half of the decade.
